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COVID-19: Over 500 patients will recover in the next three weeks – Gabby Otchere-Darko predicts

Cousin of President Akufo-Addo and private legal practitioner, Gabby Otchere-Darko has predicted an overwhelming recovery of COVID-19 in Ghana in the coming weeks.

In a Facebook post hours before the president’s address to the nation, he predicted that per the tests conducted and the efforts of the health practitioners, Ghana will be on the path of massive recoveries in the weeks to come.

Currently, out of the 1,042 confirmed cases in Ghana, only 4 (yes four) are in either critical or moderately ill condition. That is 0.38%! Going by one source alone, www.worldometers.info the global rate is over 3% in critical condition (down from 6% a month ago as nominal figures rise). Also, the majority of those infected with COVID-19 get a self-limiting infection and will go on to recover.

My prediction is that over the next three weeks alone, we are likely to have over 500 cases of recovered cases in Ghana after the mandatory two successful negative tests.

So far, the transition from mild to severe or critical cases or death in Ghana is not happening anywhere near the rate that we are seeing in the West. We have only 9 deaths so far. Of course, every death matters. But, that is still 0.86% of all confirmed cases. Globally, according to various credible trackers, about 10% of cases require intensive care unit admission and 6.4% of people confirmed to be infected have now died globally. California alone, for example, has some 1,177 deaths. So far, the trend in Ghana is not following the pattern we are seeing in the West, for example.

Our population is also much younger than that of the West and the scientists believe this counts. Over 95% of deaths caused by Coronavirus in Europe affected those over 60 years, with more than 50% of all deaths being people over 80.

Furthermore, the warmer climate may also be helping us, (if not the years of chloroquine our bodies have endured!) because the rate of infection among those known to have been in contact with infected persons (and yet were not infected) seems much lower than what we are seeing in the West.

The point in all this is not to be complacent. In any event, not many leaders of the world have taken the kinds of timely, bold and decisive initiatives that President Akufo-Addo has taken since March to combat this virus. It is about how one chooses to read the data. The numbers may frighten you, compared to where we knew we were five weeks ago, but the numbers represent more than panic.

For example, 49,699 people have been tested directly through contact tracing. Only 544 (1.09%) of them tested positive. Contact tracing simply refers to people who had been in contact with persons carrying this highly infectious Coronavirus.

Compare that to the infected persons who brought it from abroad. Out of 2,022 who were quarantined, 115 (5.69%) tested positive.

He then stated: “My prediction is that over the next three weeks alone, we are likely to have over 500 cases of recovered cases in Ghana after the mandatory two successful negative tests.”

He defended the decision by the President to lift the three-week restriction imposed on the movement of persons stressing that, lockdown is by no means the only effective method of checking the spread of this virus.

“Some of the countries combating this pandemic more effectively than most countries, are not in lockdown. They did all the other things we are doing, including aggressive contact tracing and testing and shunned lockdown,” he argued.

“We should be careful about being unduly influenced by imported groupthink. We must develop our own group think based on our own circumstances and available scientific evidence,” he added.