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Jeb Bush in SEVENTH place in Iowa making Scott Walker Republican front-runner

  • Former Florida governor is popular nationally with GOP donors and is believed to have built up the biggest war chest
  • But he’s only visited Iowa once as he advances toward a formal announcement and it shows – he’s polling at just five percent 
  • That puts him double digits behind party front-runner Scott Walker; Wisconsin’s governor is gobbling up nearly a quarter of the GOP pie
  • Rubio and Paul are also at the front of the pack with 13 percent, while Ted Cruz is at 12 percent and  Mike Huckabee is polling at 11 percent
  • No other Republican candidates currently have double digit support there

By

Francesca Chambers For Dailymail.com


Published:
10:32 EST, 6 May 2015

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Updated:
13:15 EST, 7 May 2015

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A new survey shows Jeb Bush struggling to gain traction with the Republican caucus-goers who will determine his fate in the nation’s first presidential primary state, Iowa.

The former Florida governor is popular nationally with GOP donors and is believed to have built up the biggest war chest. He boasted to his backers a week and a half ago that he’d raised the most money of any probable presidential candidate ever in the first 100 days at bat.

But Bush, who has only visited Iowa once as he advances toward a formal announcement of his candidacy, has earned the loyalty of just five percent of his party’s decision makers in Iowa, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, and isn’t well-liked by Republicans the state.

STRUGGLING: A new survey shows Jeb Bush is not gaining traction with the Republican caucus-goers who will determine his fate in the nation's first presidential primary state, Iowa. He's pictured here at the Cedar Rapids Pizza Ranch during his only visit to the state this year

STRUGGLING: A new survey shows Jeb Bush is not gaining traction with the Republican caucus-goers who will determine his fate in the nation’s first presidential primary state, Iowa. He’s pictured here at the Cedar Rapids Pizza Ranch during his only visit to the state this year

SEVENTH PLACE: Bush is polling in the middle of the GOP pack and double digits behind party front-runner Scott Walker. Tied for second are Marco Rubio and Rand Paul

SEVENTH PLACE: Bush is polling in the middle of the GOP pack and double digits behind party front-runner Scott Walker. Tied for second are Marco Rubio and Rand Paul

And his last name may not be the problem, Quinnipiac’s survey indicates.

His father and brother, both of whom are former presidents, remain on Iowa Republicans’ nice list. They’re viewed positively by 80 percent of likely caucus-goers there.

Republican partner at Rokk Solutions, Ron Bonjean told the Daily Mail that Quinnipiac’s findings show that Jeb’s ‘challenge is making sure that he makes the connection’ with his family’s legacy and proves that ‘he is just as conservative as they are in his policies.’

The poor performance in the Quinnipiac poll puts Bush in the middle of the GOP pack and double digits behind party front-runner Scott Walker.

The two-time governor of Wisconsin who won over the hearts and minds of Iowa conservatives early on this election cycle with a breakout speech at a January summit in the state.

Walker has consistently lead the flock of Republicans ever since, gobbling up nearly a quarter of the GOP pie.

Quinnipiac’s survey has him winning 21 percent of Iowa Republicans, with 59 percent of respondents giving him a positive rating. A Public Policy Polling test that came out last week had his support at 23 percent in the Hawkeye State.

Bush, meanwhile, was viewed favorably by only 39 percent of Quinnipiac survey-takers. Another 45 percent shared negative feelings about him, with 15 percent saying they haven’t made up their minds.

‘It’s very clear he needs to make more of an investment in the state, because if other GOP contenders are constantly there, he’ll need to do the same thing and showcase why voters should vote for him,’ Bonjean said.

FRONT-RTUNNER: Two-time governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker won over the hearts and minds of Iowa conservatives early on this election cycle with a breakout speech at a January summit in the state. He's pictured here at a Cedar Rapids event at the end of April

FRONT-RTUNNER: Two-time governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker won over the hearts and minds of Iowa conservatives early on this election cycle with a breakout speech at a January summit in the state. He’s pictured here at a Cedar Rapids event at the end of April

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, pictured here last month at the University of Iowa, is in second place in the state, putting him in a dead heat with Florida Senator Marco Rubio

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, pictured here last month at the University of Iowa, is in second place in the state, putting him in a dead heat with Florida Senator Marco Rubio

That compares to relatively new faces like Walker, whose standing in the polls could go up significantly as voters learn more about him. 

A significant percent or respondents, 29 percent, said they didn’t know enough about the 47-year-old to give an opinion – and that’s on top of the six in 10 Republicans who had positive things to say.

Likewise, 43-year-old Florida Senator Marco Rubio was smiled upon by 69 percent of respondents, with an additional 21 percent of those Republicans surveyed saying they were undecided. He tied for second overall in the Quinnipiac test with Rand Paul but scored the highest in the likability test.

Rubio and Kentucky’s Paul both polled at 13 percent – a single point ahead of Texas’s Ted Cruz. All three senators are officially in the race, along with former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.

Fiorina jumped into the GOP primary on Monday, after the poll was already completed. She currently has a small group of supporters, two percent, but roughly two-thirds of the Republicans Quinnipiac talked to also said they didn’t know very much about her. 

She’s making the rounds in Iowa on Thursday and could see her numbers go up with additional exposure in the state.

Carson, who announced on the same day as Fiorina, is also in Iowa this week. He’s polling at seven percent – two digits higher than Bush – and has a 53 percent favorability rating and the opportunity to win 38 percent additional Republicans who also professed to not know enough about him to come to a conclusion.

Huckabee, on the other hand, has a well-established brand in Iowa, having won the state in his 2008 run. A mere seven percent of Iowa Republicans said they were unfamiliar with him, and 64 percent said they liked him. 

Rubio his picture taken with AmyAnn Pearson, at a combination fundraiser and birthday party for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, in November of 2012 in Altoona, Iowa. His numerous visits to the state since the last presidential eleciton are working in his favor. He's smiled upon by 69 percent of likely caucus-goers - the highest of all the Republican contenders

Rubio his picture taken with AmyAnn Pearson, at a combination fundraiser and birthday party for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, in November of 2012 in Altoona, Iowa. His numerous visits to the state since the last presidential eleciton are working in his favor. He’s smiled upon by 69 percent of likely caucus-goers – the highest of all the Republican contenders

Other candidates polled were Chris Christie and Rick Perry, three percent, John Kasich and Rick Santorum, two percent, Bobby Jindal, one percent, and Lindsey Graham, who appeared to receive less than one percent of Iowa Republicans’ support.

With the Iowa caucus still months away, the state is still any candidate’s to win or lose, however.

Bonjean, who runs a successful public affairs firm and has served as the chief of staff to top Republicans on Capitol Hill, likened the GOP primary to ‘watching a NASCAR race.’

‘One car’s going be replaced by another, and take the lead, while we all watch the last go round and round,’ he said, excitedly. ‘And we’re not really going to know who’s necessarily going to come in first and second until the last few laps of the race.’ 

The Iowa straw poll this August will be the first major test for GOP contenders and has traditionally helped weed out the weakest links, though its results have historically departed from the eventual winner of the state’s caucuses, to be held in 2016 in January.

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