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Pandemic experts are starting to sound increasingly optimistic. Is it safe to make plans for a summer vacation?

Scientists say you can start getting optimistic about a summer with fewer pandemic restrictions — but maybe not too optimistic.

A report in The Washington Post goes so far as to say “there is a good chance that by summer … many aspects of life will be reminiscent of a time before coronavirus.” David Rubin, director of Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia’s PolicyLab, says “the probability of a great summer is really increasing,” and the article outlines a tantalizing array of activities that may soon be within reach: everything from family reunions to indoor dinner parties to even summer vacations.

Similarly, a USA Today op-ed heralds “the beginning of the end of the pandemic,” attributing a major fall in infection rates largely to natural immunity following such widespread exposure to COVID-19. Vox describes epidemiologists with an attitude “of guarded optimism that the pandemic is entering its last stage,” with one public health expert tentatively predicting a “normal-ish” summer.

“There are wild card factors that could change this, but I’ve been telling people if there are things you’ve been wanting to do, think July or late summer,” Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious-disease expert at Columbia University told the Post.

But, of course, there are major caveats. Numbers were trending in the right direction for a few weeks, but have now plateaued or ticked back up, so we’re not necessarily on a one-way path out of the woods. Experts offered a reality check in The Atlantic, saying “we still have a very long way to go.” That’s if we use annual flu hospitalizations and deaths as a benchmark for risk “largely considered acceptable by the public.” But considering the flu kills an average of 55 to 140 Americans a day in recent years, our current COVID-19 toll of nearly 2,000 deaths per day is really far off, even if the “flu test” is “not a perfect apples-to-apples comparison,” as the Atlantic writes.

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Everyone is hesitant to make actual predictions at this point, and even the Post, after floating the idea of restaurants and game nights in our near future, notes CDC director Rochelle Walensky said stagnating infections numbers mark a “very concerning shift.” “We may be done with the virus,” said Walensky, “but clearly the virus is not done with us.”